Housing Price Index – May 2009

July 29th, 2009 by Andrew

The Teranet Housing Price Index released their data for May 2009 today. The composite index level for May 2009 is at 120.05 which represents a -6.92% decrease year over year but a 0.72% increase month over month from April. Year to date the composite index has dropped -4.4%.

Summary

Another Real Estate Bear

July 27th, 2009 by Andrew

If you need any reason to feel negative about the future of real estate I suggest you head on over and digest GreaterFool.ca. The author of the blog Garth Turner is hell-bent that real estate in Canada has nowhere to go but south.

Garth does have some valid points and he presents them in a witty, humorous way.  I must admit I laughed out loud at several of his comments.

Links From Around The Web – July 26, 2009

July 26th, 2009 by Andrew

Kathryn from MDJ poses the question Should we be funding our Children’s higher education?

Four-Pillars has an article about disclosing your current salary in an interview.

ThickenMyWallet compares and contrasts Japan’s lost decade vs. America’s current position.

ThickenMyWallet also examines if gold is a good long term investment.

SquawkFox debates whether frugal living is just a fad.

CanadianCapitalist discusses his doubts on Equity Risk Premiums.

Top 10 Vacation Travel Websites

July 26th, 2009 by Andrew

Looking to get away from the office over the next year? Search the following top 10 list of Canadian vacation travel websites to ensure that you are getting the best deal out there!

1 – SelloffVacations.com

selloffvacations

2 – TripCentral.ca

tripcentral

3 – Expedia.ca

expedia

4 – Travelocity.ca

travelocity

5 – RedTag.ca

redtag

6 – iTravel2000

itravel2000

7 – BelairTravel.ca

belairtravel

8 – TravelTST.ca

traveltst

9 – Escapes.ca

escapes

10 – ExitNow.ca

exitnow

If you are aware of any great vacation travel sites that I have missed post them in the comments.

Canadian Housing Trend Predictions

July 23rd, 2009 by Andrew

What does the future have in store for Canadian housing prices?

A very important question for every home owner and  potential home owner evaluating the decision to buy with current interest rates at next to 0%.I recently can across a very interesting blog the other day, that may be able to help you answer this very question. The author of the blog Jonathan, makes some very compelling arguments about why he believes real estate is a bad long term investment and why the Canadian housing market is heading for catastrophe. His post are very well written and full of data driven conclusions.

I highly recommend that you read…
The Inevitable Collapse – North America’s Leveraged Economy and it’s Effect on Canadian Home Prices

We Live In Borrowed Times

CMHC – Canada’s Breaking Point

Links From Around The Web – July 18, 2009

July 19th, 2009 by Andrew

CanadianMoneyForum has a very heated debate on How Much Do You Need to Retire?

MillionDollarJourney compares Monthly Income Funds from the Canadian Big Banks

ThickenMyWallet has an very detailed post on Investing in REITs

Fivecentnickel provides tips on how to survive as a family with One Vehicle.

CanadianDream explains why Managing Your Cashflow is the Key to Financial Independence

Inflation

July 18th, 2009 by Andrew

One of the important economic indicators to monitor as an investor is inflation.  The following post will examine what exactly inflation is, what are the historical trends and where you can find data on inflation.

What is Inflation?

Inflation is defined as the general rise in prices in an economy over time. When prices rise each dollar purchases fewer goods and services leading to a loss of purchasing power and a decrease in the real value of money.

The most common measure of inflation is the inflation rate which in Canada is measured as the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time.

What is the Consumer Price Index?

The Consumer Price Index is a measure of a basket of goods and services that a typical Canadian household purchases. The basket of goods and services is held constant and the market prices of those goods are services are measured at different periods of time to determine the general level of prices. The Bank of Canada publishes a Total CPI index and a Core CPI index. The difference between the two is that the Core CPI excludes eight of the most volatile components (fruit, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, inter-city transportation and tobacco products).

The graph below displays the historical level of the Total CPI over the period of January 1995 to June 2009.

CPI_Indexes

How is the inflation rate calculated?

The inflation rate is calculated as the percentage change in Consumer Price Index at two different periods of time. Most often the two periods of time are year over year (For Example June 2008 to June 2009). The Bank of Canada publishes two different inflation rates referred to as Total Inflation and Core Inflation. The difference between the two being that Core Inflation is calculated using the Core CPI.

The graph below illustrates the Total Inflation Rate and the Core Inflation Rate for the period of January 1995 to June 2009.

Inflation_Rate

Inflation Rate Historical Stats

I often find myself using inflation as an input in my financial models as a discount rate to calculate inflation adjusted present values. The statistics below will give you a ballpark number for historical inflation rate averages if you are curious as to what they are.

Average Inflation Rate: 2.02%

Average Core Inflation Rate: 1.82%

Standard Deviation of the Inflation Rate: 0.84%

Standard Deviation of the Core Inflation Rate: 0.44%

Consumer Price Index and Inflation Data

Bank of Canada CPI and Inflation Data

Statistics Canada CPI and Inflation Data

Is The Worst Yet to Come?

July 17th, 2009 by Andrew

The worst is yet to come according to the latest report released by Eric Sprott at Sprott Asset Management. In his most recent newsletter “It’s the Real Economy Stupid” Sprott suggests that there is a large disconnect between the real economy fundamentals and investor sentiment.  The report nicely summarizes several real economic indicators and draws parallels to the trends in the 1929 great depression.  Here is a snippet of the report.  

We find the similarity between the 2008 economic collapse and the 1929 economic collapse disturbing. Don’t get sucked in… the real economy is still struggling and the market has yet to reflect this. In 1932, the Dow Jones Industrial Average bottomed 90% below the September 1929 peak. The S&P 500 Index peaked in October 2007 at 1,576, and from our brief analysis above we can easily calculate a drop in the S&P 500 of as much as 88% from that peak using our ‘double trouble’ scenario. At the very least, under all of our scenarios it appears that the S&P 500 Index will test the March 2009 low of 666. Judging by the continued declines we are seeing in the real economy, we expect that test to happen sooner rather than later.

In our view, the only thing propping this market up is investor sentiment. Earnings have not improved. Keep it simple, stupid – investing is and has always been about the real economy, and this market is ignoring the hard data. You can invest in sentiment if you want to, but as we have said before, we prefer to invest in real things.

Now I don’t agree with everything that he says in his article, but he does make some compelling arguments that no investor in todays market should discount. I suggest you give it a read and form your own opinons. 

Read the full article: It’s the Real Economy Stupid.

Consumer Price Index – June 2009

July 17th, 2009 by Andrew

Statistics Canada has released its monthly report on the Consumer Price Index and inflation for June 2009. 

The total CPI index declined 0.3% on a year over year basis from June 2008 to June 2009. This is the first reading of deflation and the first decline in the total CPI index since November 2004. This trend is primarily driven by energy prices, if you recall the price of gasoline were significantly higher at this time a year ago. The decline in energy prices was approximately 24.3% year over year. 

The Core CPI index which excludes eight of the most volatile components (fruit, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, inter-city transportation and tobacco products) increased a healthy 1.9% from June 2008 – June 2009. 

View the full Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index report.

View the Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index data.